After the declaration of 275 members of parliament from the direct and proportional election system, the discussion about the formation of the new government has begun. The result of the general election has not given mandate to a single party to form the government so the exercise of a coalition has begun.
One of the alternatives out of half dozen can be achieved for the formation of the new government. First of all Nepali Congress and UML led coalition can form the government. For the coalition, a group of people has been active and the possibility of the government has been observed very high. Second, Congress led non leftist government. This can gather a majority to form government. Third, Congress led existing ruling coalition has majority to give continuity as the new government. Fourth, the existing coalition can form Prachand led government. But the possibility is less for it. Fifth Prachand led government with the support of UML coalition. This will created further left cooperation in future but morally it is possible for Maoist Centre. And If UML forms a coalition with rest political parties out of Congress and Maoist, Oli can be Prime Minister again.
If UML and Congress form government, Maoist Centre will be the Opposition of House. If Congress led non left government is formed, UML will be the main opposition of House and Maoist Centre will take the opposition floor. If Maoist Centre holds the main opposition of House against the Congress and UML led government, the situation of confrontation will be formed. The very coalition government can create situation weakening the political achievements achieved on force of political movement after 2062/063 BS. The threat of weakening achievement can be possible from the Congress UML coalition government.
To prevent the threat there will be another threat is to linger the state quo situation by Congress led government with two to four ministerial births of Maoists. This situation for Maoists will be witnessing the Congress led government being tail of the government. This situation is to allow Congress wrong and Maoist Centre to dip into.
For the Maoist point of view, the best among worse alternatives is non left government where Maoists will judge the government sitting on the floor and UML sits on the main opposition. If Maoist does not join the government, there situation will allow UML to experience the reality and figure out its mistakes to be rectified and gradually the door of cooperation for Maoist and UML will be opened.
Rectifying the past committed mistakes Oli promises to move towards the path of socialism and UML reopen the door of cooperation there will be new point of cooperation and unity can be formed.
The situation as much aligned with Congress that much possibility to be finished for Maoist Centre is here. Congress present to manage the alliance properly in front of the leadership but the party seems like a dinner party or a guest house not as a committed political party. Leader wise groups are operated for paying service to the foreign interests. Congress is seen guided by foreigners. One proposes another disposes within party. Problem in the Congress Party is that once the decision taken by the Congress leadership that is not sure to be honored by top to bottom within organization.
In Maoist Centre there is an opinion that if not post of the Prime Minister is sure taking some posts of ministers, party should join the government. If the leadership of government is given that will be good but that is not possible. The opinion of taking two to four ministers joining the government is most dangerous for the party. This will create a big loss to Maoist Party and movement. Most of the leaders and workers are not agree to join the government even the leadership of government is offered. At the point of this idea of joining government receiving two to four ministers is to be the worst.
Now it will be good to judge the government sitting on the floor. It is the best alternative to strengthen the organization instead of roaming to form government and run the government. Sharing the power is a good option without sharing the cabinet of federal government.
Now the situation of getting the post of president is impossible. The effort of honoring the leader of United Socialist Party, Jhalnath Khanal with post of president will be the maximum success. He is a patriot and ideological leader. Among the senior most communist leaders no one is more firm determined leader than Jhalnath Khanal.
The post also suits to Mohan Baidya Kiran but it is not possible now because of his narrow ideological stand.
Maoist Centre has to stress the need of cooperation and forming left and socialist front including United Socialist party. If it runs ahead the ground of unity and co-operation with small communist parties and persons including Kiran and Viplav led parties will be strengthened.
If the cases against Viplav led party workers are managed that will create a positive environment for the polarization.
In the UML party after the fall of KP Oli , there is a crisis to choose above all leadership. Anti UML leftists should create a comprehensive polarization and then polarization with UML will solve the crisis of leadership. For this there must be a condition to realize the mistakes committed before and accept the path of socialism establishing clarity in ideology. Following the way within five years to come from now, leftist will be stronger and capable to lead the country ahead.
Because of the religious extremism Indian social integration is not concrete. If the situation little bit changes in India, there a strong national freedom movement will come on front. Particular places of India are along with Maoist People’s War.
We have also a fundamental goal is to establish socialism. Observing the recent political chronological events, it can be calculated that sovereignty and democracy of the country is in danger zone. Foreign intervention can create party within a blink of eye as a party gets unexpected status in politics by election that is one of the most serious events of politics. The goal of pressurizing and weakening China and India, the two emerging Asian nations neighboring countries of Nepal is /will be of the USA strategy. If that want is not made failed on time, our nationality, democracy and journey of socialism will be an inaccessible path.